Trading-Bot/scripts/research/compare_systems.py

# scripts/research/compare_systems.py

"""
Comparación cuantitativa final entre:
- MA_Crossover (standalone)
- TrendFiltered_MA (standalone)
- Portfolio 50/50

Este script cierra la decisión cuantitativa antes de pasar a paper trading.
"""

import os
import sys
from pathlib import Path
from dotenv import load_dotenv

import pandas as pd

sys.path.insert(0, str(Path(__file__).parent.parent.parent))

from src.core.engine import Engine
from src.data.storage import StorageManager
from src.risk.sizing.percent_risk import PercentRiskSizer
from src.risk.stops.trailing_stop import TrailingStop

from src.strategies.moving_average import MovingAverageCrossover
from src.strategies.trend_filtered import TrendFilteredMACrossover

from src.portfolio.portfolio_engine import PortfolioEngine
from src.portfolio.allocation import Allocation

from src.metrics.equity_metrics import compute_equity_metrics


# --------------------------------------------------
# CONFIG
# --------------------------------------------------
SYMBOL = "BTC/USDT"
TIMEFRAME = "1h"
INITIAL_CAPITAL = 10_000

STOP = TrailingStop(0.02)


# --------------------------------------------------
def load_data():
    load_dotenv("config/secrets.env")

    storage = StorageManager(
        db_host=os.getenv("DB_HOST"),
        db_port=int(os.getenv("DB_PORT", 5432)),
        db_name=os.getenv("DB_NAME"),
        db_user=os.getenv("DB_USER"),
        db_password=os.getenv("DB_PASSWORD"),
    )

    data = storage.load_ohlcv(
        symbol=SYMBOL,
        timeframe=TIMEFRAME,
        use_cache=True,
    )
    storage.close()

    if data.empty:
        raise RuntimeError("No data loaded")

    return data


def run_engine(engine: Engine, data) -> dict:
    res = engine.run(data)
    equity = res["equity_curve"]
    timestamps = res["timestamps"]

    metrics = compute_equity_metrics(
        equity_curve=equity,
        timestamps=timestamps,
    )

    return {
        "final_capital": equity[-1],
        **metrics,
    }


# --------------------------------------------------
def run():
    data = load_data()

    systems = {}

    # --------------------------------------------------
    # MA_Crossover standalone (1% risk)
    # --------------------------------------------------
    systems["MA_Crossover"] = run_engine(
        Engine(
            strategy=MovingAverageCrossover(30, 100, "ema", False),
            initial_capital=INITIAL_CAPITAL,
            position_sizer=PercentRiskSizer(0.01),
            stop_loss=STOP,
            commission=0.001,
            slippage=0.0005,
        ),
        data,
    )

    # --------------------------------------------------
    # TrendFiltered_MA standalone (1% risk)
    # --------------------------------------------------
    systems["TrendFiltered_MA"] = run_engine(
        Engine(
            strategy=TrendFilteredMACrossover(30, 100, "ema", 15),
            initial_capital=INITIAL_CAPITAL,
            position_sizer=PercentRiskSizer(0.01),
            stop_loss=STOP,
            commission=0.001,
            slippage=0.0005,
        ),
        data,
    )

    # --------------------------------------------------
    # Portfolio 50/50 (0.5% + 0.5%)
    # --------------------------------------------------
    engines = {
        "MA_Crossover": Engine(
            strategy=MovingAverageCrossover(30, 100, "ema", False),
            initial_capital=INITIAL_CAPITAL,
            position_sizer=PercentRiskSizer(0.005),
            stop_loss=STOP,
            commission=0.001,
            slippage=0.0005,
        ),
        "TrendFiltered_MA": Engine(
            strategy=TrendFilteredMACrossover(30, 100, "ema", 15),
            initial_capital=INITIAL_CAPITAL,
            position_sizer=PercentRiskSizer(0.005),
            stop_loss=STOP,
            commission=0.001,
            slippage=0.0005,
        ),
    }

    portfolio = PortfolioEngine(
        engines=engines,
        allocation=Allocation(
            weights={
                "MA_Crossover": 0.5,
                "TrendFiltered_MA": 0.5,
            }
        ),
        initial_capital=INITIAL_CAPITAL,
    )

    portfolio_res = portfolio.run(data)

    systems["Portfolio_50_50"] = {
        "final_capital": portfolio_res.final_capital,
        **compute_equity_metrics(
            equity_curve=portfolio_res.equity_curve,
            timestamps=data.index[: len(portfolio_res.equity_curve)],
        ),
    }

    # --------------------------------------------------
    # COMPARISON TABLE
    # --------------------------------------------------
    df = pd.DataFrame(systems).T

    df["final_capital"] = df["final_capital"].round(2)
    df["cagr"] = (df["cagr"] * 100).round(2)
    df["max_drawdown"] = (df["max_drawdown"] * 100).round(2)
    df["volatility"] = (df["volatility"] * 100).round(2)
    df["time_in_drawdown"] = (df["time_in_drawdown"] * 100).round(2)
    df["calmar_ratio"] = df["calmar_ratio"].round(2)
    df["ulcer_index"] = df["ulcer_index"].round(2)

    print("\n" + "=" * 100)
    print("📊 SYSTEM COMPARISON (FINAL DECISION)")
    print("=" * 100)
    print(df)
    print("=" * 100)

    print("\n📌 Interpretación:")
    print("- El mejor sistema NO es el que tiene mayor capital final.")
    print("- Prioriza menor drawdown, mejor Calmar y menor Ulcer Index.")
    print("- Si el portfolio domina en riesgo/retorno → decisión cerrada.\n")


# --------------------------------------------------
if __name__ == "__main__":
    run()